Threat study: Preliminary results

Preliminary results of an ongoing nationwide DBJR survey on the threat situation

The German Federal Youth Council is surveying the threat situation regarding attacks and threats to youth groups, youth associations and youth organisations - especially at local level. While the Federal Youth Council's 2024 Concern Study focussed more on assessments and concerns about the threat of extreme right-wing parties coming to power at various federal levels, this survey is primarily dedicated to experiences of threats and attacks from a spectrum that is not directly party-related. The aim is to strengthen the exchange between youth organisations, enrich discussions with empirical values and collect support options.

Facts and figures at a glance

• 201 participating youth groups, youth organisations and youth councils to date: with a focus on the municipal level (46.3% local/municipal; 10.4% district/city youth councils).
• 46 Reports of attacks/assaults in the last 12 months
• Types of attacks/assaults: Insults/abusive language (71.2%), online attacks/hate speech (44.2%), threats (38.5%), damage to property (34.6%)
• Targets of the attacks: organisation (55.8%), individuals (51.9%), institutions (30.8%) and the entire group (21.2%)
• 78.9% of attacks with recognisable political motivation from the extreme right-wing spectrum

Who responded? (Structure of the responses)

A total of 201 organisations and structures have taken part in the survey so far. Local/municipal youth organisations and youth groups make up the largest proportion (46.3%; 93). This is followed by youth organisations at state level (21.4%; 43), supra-regional levels such as district/diocesan structures (11.0%; 22) and district or city youth councils (10.4%; 21). Youth organisations at federal level (8.0%; 16) and state youth councils (1.0%; 2) also took part.

How often and in what context do attacks occur?

46 youth groups, youth organisations and youth rings reported at least one incident in the last 12 months. Almost half (48.1%) stated that they had experienced 1 to 3 incidents. At the same time, 16.7% reported more than 6 incidents within a year. More than half of the responses attribute the incidents directly to a specific event, action or group activity. At the same time, 28.9% mention a thematic reference; just as often it is stated that no direct reference was recognisable.

In the detailed questions on the type and context of the incidents, low-threshold but incriminating forms of offence are mentioned particularly frequently: Insults/abusive language (71.2%) and online attacks/hate speech (44.2%). These incidents range from stickers from extreme right-wing groups and smearings, sometimes with far-right slogans, on youth centres and offices to flyers in letterboxes, individual defamations and campaigns on social media, small questions from AfD parliamentary groups in parliaments or denunciatory mentions in the far-right online magazine NiUS. "House visits" (17.31%) and other threats (38.5%) through the disruption of events, threats to withdraw funding and damage to property (34.6%) are also mentioned, including a break-in at a youth centre in which technology was destroyed and AfD lettering and swastikas were left behind. Physical attacks against people are reported less frequently (13.5%), but they remain a relevant aspect of the threat situation and also directly affect young people.

Who is affected - and how are they dealt with?

A broad picture emerges with regard to the targets of the attacks: The organisation as such (55.8%) and individuals (51.9%) are frequently affected. Organisations (30.8%) and entire groups (21.2%) are also mentioned. The political motivation of the attackers is predominantly assessed by the respondents as clearly recognisable: 50.0% rate it as "very clear", 28.9% as "rather clear". The responses clearly show that the attacks are often either carried out by known actors from the extreme right-wing spectrum - or that the perpetrators are not clearly identifiable to those affected. These are often members and officials of the AfD, media from the right-wing populist spectrum such as NiUS and Junge Freiheit.

Visible sense of threat and possible consequences for engagement

In addition to the specific incidents, respondents were asked about their subjective perception of threat: 29.3% of respondents feel potentially endangered/threatened "sometimes", 13.8% "often" or "very often". 36.2% answered "rarely", 13.8% "never". Possible effects on participants and volunteers were also surveyed: 26.3% of respondents reported that people "sometimes" to "very often" withdrew or prohibited parents from further participation or refrained from their own activities and involvement due to concerns about personal hostility. At the same time, 29.8% state that they "never" experience this; 21.1% are unable to say.

How the respondents deal with incidents

The organisations affected document the incidents internally and report them to their umbrella organisations, municipalities, the police and advice centres. Overall, the experiences of the organisations concerned have led to the conviction that they will not be defeated and will continue to work for a free youth culture in diversity and democracy. On the one hand, they are intensifying the awareness-raising and training of their members, volunteers and full-time staff and professionalising their documentation and security concepts for their facilities, but also through risk analyses, action plans and police protection as well as the options for protecting employees. It is clear that the necessary resources are lacking for the actual youth work as well as the self-organised and self-determined activities of young people in youth groups, youth associations and youth rings, which are threatened and attacked by the extreme right.